Gambling Fallacy

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Imagine if someone was to offer you a bet that they could  throw a coin in the air ten times in a row and it would show up heads every flip  . They would let you pick the coin of your choice so you would know it was a fair coin. What type of odds would you give them for this bet?  Would you offer 100-to-1? 1,000-to-1? You could offer 1,000-to-1 odds and most likely expect to come out ahead.

Now what if he flipped the coin a total of nine times and it came up with the heads side every time?  For the 10th flip would you give them the same  1,000-to-1 against heads? If you were to do so, it would be a big mistake , and this mistake is the cornerstone of the gambler’s fallacy .

The Principle to understanding the Gambler’s Fallacy
The gambler’s fallacy is the principle that previous trials affect the odds of a random event . In the above mentioned example, the fact that heads showed up nine times in a row has absolutely no effect on whether the coin will come up heads on the tenth coin flip.

Once the nine flips have already happened, the odds of the tenth flip coming up heads are 50-50, just like the first flip. The coin has no memory and you might as well be flipping it the first time, or be flipping a different coin.

How the Gambler’s Fallacy Affects your Casino Gambling
The gambler’s fallacy has a big role in the realm of casino gambling. People who gamble tend to look for repeating patterns in the hope of getting an edge over the house.

If they notice that black has come up on a roulette wheel many times in a row, they may be more likely to bet red. If they have lost spins of roulette in a row, they may double their bets, assuming that the odds of winning are better.

This is in fact the basis for the fallacious Martingale System, in which a player doubles his bet after every loss. In the short term, losses can occur many times in a row without altering the game in some way.  Gamblers who suffer from this fallacy belief will find themselves in much problems if they continue to use this method  .

It’s important to know that this belief is a fallacy only in the case of games with replacement , in which the conditions are the same in each trial. In black jack games, in which certain cards are not replaced right away, prior events can affect future events, and this is in fact the fundamental basis for people involved with card counting.

 Next time you are at the New Brunswick casino make sure you take these tips with you. Casino New Brunswick is a great casino and one were you can put this tip into perspective. Also Casino Nouveau Brunswick is bilingual for any french speaking citizens.




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